Daily Forex Commentary: July 28 2009

FOREX Daily Outlook by Easy-Forex.com

USD under pressure from risk taking

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 28th July (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was sold for most of Asia and Europe before a slide in US stocks at the open gave the USD a short term reprieve. The EURO and AUD were pressuring month highs threatening to break higher. New Home Sales surged +10% in June, encouraging dip buyers to help US stocks finish in the green once again. Crude Oil ended $0.33 higher to close at $68.38. In US share markets, S&P ended +2.92 points (+0.30%) at 982, NASDAQ ended +1 points (0.1%) at 1967 and DOW JONES ended +15.27 points (+0.17%) at 9108. Looking ahead, CB Consumer Confidence forecast at 49 vs. 49.3 previously. Also released, Case Schiller for May forecast at -0.5% vs. -0.6% previously.

The Euro (EUR) was bought heavily during Asia to set up a test of 1.4300 in Europe before falling quite sharply in the US after failing at the Key level. German GFK in August climbed to 3.5 vs. 2.9 forecast and help support the pair. EUR/GBP was volatile as traders tested both sides of the 0.86-87 range. EUR/JPY tested 136. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4171 and a high of 1.4300 before closing at 1.4240.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) was trading in an extremely tight range in Asia even as the Nikkei gained 2% before breaking higher above 95 Yen in Europe on heavy EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY buying. Further Gains were limited by USD weakness as the two safe haven currencies competed for the weakest footing. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 94.67 and a high of 95.41 before closing the day around 95.20 in the New York session. Looking ahead, Japanese Retail Sales for July forecast at -2.5% vs. -2.8% previously.

The Sterling (GBP) was volatile as risk taking helped the pair above 1.6500 before finding heavy selling above this level that discourage further buying especially as the Euro fell back from 1.4300. GBP/JPY provided plenty of support but the recent stock rally was questioned in the US and the pair could fall back if stocks retreat. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6380 and a high of 1.6526 before closing the day at 1.6480 in the New York session. Looking ahead, July CBI distributive Trades are forecast at -12 vs. -17 previously.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) tested year highs on the back of fresh highs in the Nikkei and strong AUD/JPY support. The failure of the EURO to breach its resistance and weak US stocks helped keep the key level intact but the market bullish bias will require a distinct shift to change direction. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8143 and a high of 0.8262 before closing the US session at 0.8220. Looking ahead, RBA Governor Stevens speaks.

Gold (XAU) tried to break higher but suffered the same fate as the majors falling back on profit taking. Overall trading with a low of USD$947 and high of USD$959 before ending the New York session at USD$954 an ounce.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency	Sup 2	Sup 1	Spot	Res 1	Res 2
EUR/USD	1.4056	1.4120	1.4245	1.4338	1.4719
USD/JPY	92.72	93.10	95.20	95.46	96.24
GBP/USD	1.6266	1.6311	1.6495	1.6586	1.6745
AUD/USD	0.7925	0.8090	0.8225	0.8263	0.8378
XAU/USD	918.00	932.00	953.00	965.00	990.00

Euro – 1.4245

Initial support at 1.4120 (Jul 23 low) followed by 1.4056 (Jul 16 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4338 (Jun 3 high) followed by 1.4719 (Dec 18 high)

Yen – 95.20

Initial support is located at 93.10 (Jul 22 low) followed by 92.72 (July 14 low). Initial resistance is now at 95.46 (Jul 7 high) followed by 96.24 (July 6 high).

Pound – 1.6495

Initial support at 1.6311 (July 22 low) followed by 1.6266 (Jul 13 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6586 (Jun 23 high) followed by 1.6745 (June 30 high).

Australian Dollar – 0.8225

Initial support at 0.8090 (July 15 low) followed by the 0.7925 (July 14 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.8263 (June 3 high) followed by 0.8378 (Sept 26 high).

Gold – 953

Initial support at 932 (Jul 17 low) followed by 918 (July 14 low). Initial resistance is now at 965 (June 10 high) followed by 990 (Jun 3 high).

Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss, and may not be suitable for everyone.

Click here to visit Easy-Forex.com

Share Investor Links

Share Investor Blog
Buy forex books and trading software
Share Investor Business News
Discuss the Forex Market @ Share Investor Forum

Affiliated Links

Political Animal

Recommended Amazon Reading


Forex Trading Strategies by John Hayes
Buy new: $15.00
Usually ships in 24 hours


c Share Investor 2009

Daily Forex Commentary: July 27 2009

FOREX Daily Outlook by Easy-Forex.com

Market Slows Down into the Weekend

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 27th July (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) bouts of profit taking capped a week of heavy gains for Equity markets and helped limit FX movements on Friday. UoM June Consumer Confidence was revised higher to 66 vs. 65.1 forecast. Crude Oil ended $0.89 higher to close at $68.05. In US share markets, S&P ended +2.97 points (+0.30%) at 979.26, NASDAQ ended -7.63 points (-0.39%) at 1965.96 and DOW JONES ended +23.95 points (+0.26%) at 9093. Looking ahead, New Home Sales in June forecast at 0.36M vs. 0.342M.

The Euro (EUR) tested 1.4250 once again before falling back to 1.4200 supports in a quiet end to the week. German IFO improved to 87.3 vs. 86.5 forecast and 85.9 previously in a slight improvement in Economic sentiment. July EU PMI Services slightly better than expected at 45.6 vs. 44.7 previously and PMI manufacturing at 46.0 vs. 42.6 previously. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4135 and a high of 1.4254 before closing at 1.4205. Looking ahead, German GFK forecast at 2.9% in August. June Import forecast at 0.5% vs. 0.0%.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) consolidated the gains seen on Friday and slipped back below 95, holding in a tight range the rest of the day. Crosses remain buoyant and continued to be bought on dips as Japanese investors searched for greater yield. Traders will be looking to US stocks for further direction expecting the two weeks of solid gains come under scrutiny this week. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 93.60 and a high of 95.18 before closing the day around 94.80 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) fell hard after preliminary Q2 GDP came in at -0.8% vs. -0.3% forecast. Support under 1.5400 held firm and the pair managed a small rally with US stocks. EUR/GBP managed to gain as the Eurozone data propped the single currency. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6390 and a high of 1.6545 before closing the day at 1.6430 in the New York session. UPDATE - Hometrack: UK July House Prices 0.0% On Mo, -7.7% On Yr.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) found support in the lower 0.8100 and once again ground higher for the rest of the day with dips being bought. AUD/JPY is providing solid support as it tries to gather for a retest of year highs above 80 yen. Some forward looking market commentators are starting to suggest the RBA will be the first central bank to raise rates and this speculation should support the AUD against all crosses going forward. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8125 and a high of 0.8190 before closing the US session at 0.8175.

Gold (XAU) was quiet pivoting the $950 level waiting for fresh direction. Overall trading with a low of USD$948 and high of USD$954 before ending the New York session at USD$950 an ounce.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency	Sup 2	Sup 1	Spot	Res 1	Res 2
EUR/USD	1.4056	1.4120	1.4180	1.4291	1.4338
USD/JPY	92.72	93.10	94.85	95.46	96.24
GBP/USD	1.6266	1.6311	1.6400	1.6586	1.6745
AUD/USD	0.7925	0.8090	0.8165	0.8237	0.8263
XAU/USD	918.00	932.00	949.00	965.00	990.00

Euro – 1.4180

Initial support at 1.4120 (Jul 23 low) followed by 1.4056 (Jul 16 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4291 (Jun 23 high) followed by 1.4338 (Jun 3 high)

Yen – 94.85

Initial support is located at 93.10 (Jul 22 low) followed by 92.72 (July 14 low). Initial resistance is now at 95.46 (Jul 7 high) followed by 96.24 (July 6 high).

Pound – 1.6400

Initial support at 1.6311 (July 22 low) followed by 1.6266 (Jul 13 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6558 (Jun 20 high) followed by 1.6745 (June 30 high).

Australian Dollar – 0.8165

Initial support at 0.8090 (July 15 low) followed by the 0.7925 (July 14 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.8237 (June 11 high) followed by 0.8263 (Jun 3 high).

Gold – 949

Initial support at 932 (Jul 17 low) followed by 918 (July 14 low). Initial resistance is now at 965 (June 10 high) followed by 990 (Jun 3 high).

Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss, and may not be suitable for everyone.

Click here to visit Easy-Forex.com

Share Investor Links

Share Investor Blog
Buy forex books and trading software
Share Investor Business News
Discuss the Forex Market @ Share Investor Forum

Affiliated Links

Political Animal

Recommended Amazon Reading


Forex Trading Strategies by John Hayes
Buy new: $15.00
Usually ships in 24 hours

c Share Investor 2009